The new playbook

by

Sports

This is part 1 of a 2-part series examining the rapidly changing landscape of college sports. Read Part 2, Updating the playbook: Paying the athletes here.

The Vestavia Hills High School football program has produced several high-profile players over the years, but one stands out above the rest in terms of the recruiting process he faced.

Defensive end Jordan Ross was one of the most highly sought prospects in America before he signed with the

University of Tennessee in late 2023. He put together an illustrious career at Vestavia, and with that came plenty of attention.

“His recruitment was eye-opening,” Vestavia Hills football coach Robert Evans said. “He and his family handled the process with much grace.”

While Ross’ recruitment gaining him plenty of attention was nothing abnormal, the type of attention was different than it would have been five or 10 years ago. Top football prospects formerly gained notoriety and hype for National Signing Day decisions. Now, it has more to do with monetary discussions surrounding name, image and likeness.

Elite prospects like Ross aren’t quite as affected by the new landscape of college athletics — one that has seen opportunities for high schoolers diminish over the years. But he is the exception to the new rule.

“We try to have honest discussions about the landscape of recruiting, including how difficult it is for walk-ons to make a roster now,” Evans said. “Players and parents alike both need to have an understanding of how the process has been affected by the portal and NIL, and what the realistic options are …

“From my perspective, recruiting has not changed for the really high-end prospect or the D3 prospect. Everyone in between has been pushed down a level or two. The kid signing with UAB 10 years ago is fortunate to have a D2 offer now.”

Evans knows the territory well. As a two-sport star himself at Vestavia, he received interest from schools like Auburn before landing a scholarship to Samford University, where he was a standout in both football and baseball. Today, his options might be limited.

“There are fewer scholarship spots,” said ESPN recruiting analyst Tom Luginbill. “Schools used to divide

scholarships among high school prospects. Now, they save 12 to 14 for portal players. High school kids have fewer options, and many are being forced into choices they wouldn't have made otherwise.”

SHIFTING SAND

Coaches are no longer building around potential. They’re buying certainty. Between the rise of the transfer portal, the explosion of name, image and likeness (NIL) dollars and the impending House v. NCAA court settlement — which could allow direct revenue-sharing paychecks from schools to athletes — the entire scholarship model has changed.

For high school seniors, that means fewer opportunities. Unless you’re elite, the message is clear: wait your turn — or get left behind.

In place of the old system is a new billion-dollar industry in which high school prospects are still commodities — just ones with less value than they held before the money started flowing.

Not all college programs play on the same field. The Power Four conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC — have TV deals, booster collectives and NIL opportunities.

Below them are Group of Five schools like UAB, Jacksonville State or Troy — with fewer scholarships, smaller budgets and less exposure. Then come FCS, D2 and junior colleges, where many now land by necessity.

THE PORTAL JAM

For decades, high school football was the bedrock of college recruiting. Talent rose, coaches scouted, scholarships followed and dreams materialized on National Signing Day.

That world is gone.

It started with COVID. In 2020, the NCAA granted all athletes an extra year of eligibility. That decision created a massive traffic jam. Fifth-year seniors stayed. Sixth-year players reclassified. Scholarships that would have gone to high school seniors disappeared.

Then came NIL. In July 2021, athletes could finally earn money off their name, image and likeness. But what was meant to reward marketability became a loosely disguised pay-for-play market.

“Monetary compensation is no longer based on results,” Luginbill said. “It’s not about ‘if I produce, schools will want me.’ Now, it’s ‘how much are you going to pay me to play here?’ There’s no accountability from the player’s side, and that’s not what NIL was intended for — certainly not in recruiting.”

At the same time, the transfer portal exploded. The NCAA removed the sit-out rule for first-time transfers, and a flood of player movement followed. A new reality emerged: Why recruit a high school senior you’ll have to develop when you can buy a 22-year-old with experience?

Evans said that is proving true at Vestavia. Despite being a tradition-rich program with a history of sending players to Division I, he said Ross is really the only player he’s had during the NIL era to get much recruiting attention.

“I would be using the portal too if I was coaching in college,” he said. “When you are the provider for your family, would you rather play with a 21-year-old man who has played well at a Group of Five school or a high school kid who still needs development? The answer is really easy.”

And that’s where it becomes a numbers game for high school prospects.

“The math doesn’t add up,” Luginbill said. “There just aren’t enough roster spots. Kids are being misled, believing they’re worth more than they are. This is happening to thousands of players.”

According to On3 Sports, more than 4,000 FBS football players entered the NCAA transfer portal during this cycle — and more than 1,600 are still looking for a home. In men’s basketball, 2,320 players entered the portal this spring, per Verbal Commits — a jump of more than 11 percent from last year and nearly 2.5 times more than five years ago.

This trend extends beyond just football and basketball. Since the NCAA eliminated its one-year sit-out rule in 2021, tens of thousands of athletes across all sports have entered the portal — many of them two, three or even four times. Each year of the NIL era has accelerated the cycle. In 2024, the NCAA opened the door to unlimited transfers.

Combined with the backlog of COVID-era players, the result is a recruiting funnel that narrows further every season. And it’s about to get even tighter, as schools prepare for revenue sharing and potential roster caps tied to the House settlement.

Coach Trent Dilfer came to UAB with a plan to build his program through high school recruiting — but that vision didn’t hold. He watched promising redshirt freshmen get poached, impact players leave mid-development and recruiting timelines shift beneath him. Now, he’s saving scholarships for older transfers. Like most coaches, he’s frustrated by the chaos and eager for structure.

“All I need is guardrails, all I need is boundaries, all I need is where it is,” Dilfer told Birmingham’s CBS 42. “I don't care where the goal post is, just keep it stationary… Because right now this goal post is going around 360 degrees because there’s zero leadership, there’s zero boundaries, there’s zero guardrails.”

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

But this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about expectations — and the widening gap between what kids believe they’re walking into and what actually waits.

For years, high school athletes have been surrounded by talk of NIL money, brand building and recruiting leverage. Highlight reels and exposure camps have reinforced a simple message: play well, get noticed, get paid. But most never make it that far.

“High school kids now believe they’re entitled to compensation,” Luginbill said. “But the original intent was that if a college athlete… became a marketable commodity, they could earn income. What we’re seeing now is far removed from that.”

Even for players who eventually cash in, the road usually starts somewhere less glamorous — a Group of Five

school, a redshirt year, a position change, a climb.

“The transfer portal has made it harder for high schoolers to land spots at Power Four programs,” said Jim Cavale, CEO of Athletes.org. “Starting at a Group of Five school and working your way up may be the best path.”

BACK-END FALLOUT

While these dynamics affect every sport, the epicenter is football and men’s basketball — where the bulk of the money flows and the pressure to win immediately is highest.

According to research on signing day trends, once-powerhouse programs are producing fewer high-major signees and more D2, JUCO and NAIA placements. In other sports — baseball, wrestling, lacrosse, even track — the scholarship slots are already shrinking. If roster caps go into effect, they may vanish altogether.

Whatever happens next — roster limits, direct pay, new NIL rules — the path for high school athletes is narrowing fast. And for coaches like Evans, that means more than just navigating offers. It means trying to help his players stay in the game.

That’s why Vestavia Hills hosts two recruiting fairs each season.

“We try to drive interest, not only for our players, but for other high schools as well. There is a shared interest amongst high school coaches to give every opportunity to current players,” Evans said.

Eventually, many on both sides of the recruiting line hope there will be system sanity — or at least clarity. Until then?

“At some point, there will be a riveting documentary about the last 3 years of college football,” Evans said. “The only problem is there is too much content to choose from. I don’t even know where you start.”