Dry spell

Last December, heavy rains and severe weather had the greater Birmingham area feeling soaked through and afraid of flooding. But this year, Alabamians are praying for more rain.

In early November, the Birmingham area broke the record for highest number of continuous days without rainfall — a record that was set in fall 1924 when the area went 52 days without rainfall.

Despite some rain throughout the month of December, rainfall levels are still well-below average, and the Birmingham Water Works Board has yet to reduce the area to below a Stage 4 drought emergency.

Even with a few showers here and there and the weather pattern changing somewhat, meteorologists are concerned the drought could continue into early 2017.

“Right now, everything points to this drought persisting well into the winter,” said Roger McNeil, a service hydrologist for the National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

McNeil said the models show most of the Southeast with a winter forecast of above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall — meaning there may not be a lot of precipitation to make up for the last few months.

The record-breaking dry streak began Sept. 18, but the National Weather Service said the area already was starting to get dry before that streak began.

“That has made it more severe than what you normally might expect,” McNeil said.

The Birmingham Water Works Board began monitoring drought conditions in late September, moving through its drought management plan through October and November to encourage users to reduce water consumption.

The BWWB said at a meeting Nov. 10 that the main issue of concern is the significant drop in the water level at Lake Purdy, one of Birmingham’s major water sources. At that time, levels were down by more than 19 feet.

And McNeil said Lake Purdy is not alone.

He said virtually all of the streams that flow throughout the state are at record lows, and without a significant change in the weather pattern, those lows could cause problems in the spring and summer of 2017, as the winter months are typically what replenishes the reservoirs.

“That’s something we’re basically going to just have to watch,” he said.

McNeil attributed the major lack of rainfall to a persistent weather pattern of high pressure and high temperatures. A high pressure ridge has kept the weather systems that typically accompany cold fronts or tropical movements from making their way through the area. Additionally, as the area dries up and moisture from the ground and vegetation evaporates, systems are not able to generate themselves.

McNeil said the NWS is comparing this drought to one that occurred in 2007, when a similar persistent high-pressure system kept the area significantly drier than usual.

He said it isn’t uncommon to have a stronger drought every eight to 10 years, so this drought may not be normal, but it isn’t necessarily unusual.

However, McNeil said there is one major difference between the 2007 drought and the one this fall, in that the two years leading up to the 2007 drought were drier than average, and the area “eased into” that drought. This drought, by contrast, has developed much more rapidly, and he said the last two years haven’t been abnormally dry.

For the year, McNeil said the area is between nine and 14 inches below normal rainfall levels, so even if the area gets a shower here and there, it will still be a serious situation. Additionally, any sudden heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding, as the top layers of soil can only absorb so much at one time.

The BWWB’s drought management plan includes increasing levels of surcharges for higher-than-average water use, as well as directives for limits on outdoor watering and suggestions for conserving water during everyday tasks.

In response, the BWWB reported the average daily totals were down to between 101 million and 105 million gallons per day in mid-November, compared to more than 120 million gallons per day in mid-October.

At its Nov. 14 meeting, the Vestavia Hills City Council enacted the city’s drought ordinance, which allows police officers to issue citations to those violating watering restrictions.

Darryl Jones, assistant general manager of operations for the BWWB, was at the meeting and explained to the council the significance of the situation.

“It looks very dim until past January,” he said, citing the NWS outlook that the drought would continue. Jones said that the BWWB has made changes in its operations to relieve some of the pressure on Lake Purdy, and that the board is looking at alternative sources of water, but that if the weather pattern doesn’t change soon, things will only get worse.

Mayor Ashley Curry said that the city doesn’t want to be onerous on citizens by enforcing restrictions, but that the situation is extreme and calls for action.

“There will be discretion in this,” Curry said, “We’re not out to get the citizens, but we do need to be responsible.”

Vestavia Hills officials are feeling just as much of a squeeze as the average resident, said Director of Public Services Brian Davis.

“We follow the same guidelines,” he said.

The major concern for the city, Davis said, is that athletic fields remain safe to play on. As the ground dries up, it can become hard and a potential safety hazard, but the directive from the BWWB allows for the watering of athletic fields to keep participants safe, he said.

As far as parks, Davis said most fall sports were winding down and the fields would be mostly empty until early spring.

However, he did say one of the things the department did this year to increase playability of baseball fields for spring teams was to plant winter rye grass. Some patches have germinated, but with the dry conditions, the fields may not look their best come spring.

“We’re trying to be good stewards,” Davis said, and so while the fields may not be perfectly green and looking their best, there shouldn’t be any drainage or playability issues.

In addition to landscaping troubles, a major concern should the drought continue is the increased risk for additional wildfires and brush fires.

Between Oct. 1 and mid-November, more than 1,600 fires had been catalogued across the state, including one in the median of Interstate 459 caused by sparks from a vehicle with a flat tire.

Coleen Vansant, public information officer for the Alabama Forestry Commission, said fall is already a busy time for firefighters, but that coming into the season with a major drought makes things even more challenging.

Vansant said the two leading causes of fires they’ve seen this fall are arson and debris burning, but they’ve seen several cases of unusual causes, such as a farmer using a bush-hog and running over a rock, which caused a spark and set the brush on fire.

“Right now, you don’t actually have to have a spark, you just have to have enough heat,” she said.

She also said that as the soil continues to dry out, fighting fires with water simply isn’t enough, and tree roots can spread fires beyond the progress the firefighters make.

Due to a decline in state funding for the commission, Vansant said the department is significantly understaffed, and they have had to move crews from south Alabama into central and north Alabama to help fight the increasing number of fires.

She did say that, so far, conditions have not eclipsed 2007, when that drought led to major fires throughout the year.

However, if dry conditions persist, as they are expected to, fighting fires will become increasingly challenging, “because 90 percent of firefighting is weather,” Vansant said.

In the closing days of November, the southeast finally saw significant rainfall, with between 2 and 4 inches falling over the period of about a week. Still, the National Weather Service reported the area is between 12 and 14 inches below normal for rainfall totals.

Mayor Curry reminded residents on Nov. 28, when the drought ordinance officially went into effect, that the city would continue to enforce watering restrictions until the BWWB reduced the drought stage to below Stage 3. On Dec. 28, because the situation remained unchanged, Curry reminded citizens that the city would be enforcing watering restrictions, and said that he and other mayors are considering looking into other water sources for the over-the-mountain area.