March Chamber speaker sheds light on 2015-16 economic outlook

Adding levity to the seemingly humorless topic of the nation’s economic health, Oakworth Capital Managing Director and Head of Wealth Management John Norris both informed and entertained Chamber luncheon members and guests during his March 10 address.

“Technology isn’t going to come into work late on May 6 and then suddenly feel ‘under the weather’ because they partied too hard on Cinco de Mayo,” Norris quipped early in his remarks, as he emphasized the point that business owners will always choose the higher yield and lower cost investment of tech versus human capital.

Speaking of the U.S. labor market, while Norris acknowledged the impressive numbers of job creation from the last year, he also made the point that most of the jobs created over the last decade are in retail, food service and other sectors punctuated by lower pay.

“Purchasing power over the last decade has not done anything, really – it’s not gone up or down,” Norris said. “But the average American worker’s wage, when adjusted for inflation, has stagnated. You also have fewer people working, 59.3% to be exact, so in reality, median household income is going down.”

Norris also discussed his expectations for improvement in the U.S. trade deficit, buoyed largely by the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

Throughout his remarks, Norris consistently stated that he expects the U.S. economy to reflect 2.5 percent growth over the 2015 calendar year.

“In this field, you can only make predictions based on what you know; I won’t go down any rabbit holes,” he said. “One likely event we can expect is that the Fed will raise rates this year, as many expect will happen. What we don’t know is how much they will raise rates and when that will occur. But based on what I have seen, if you liked what happened in 2014, you’re going to like 2015.”

Join the Vestavia Chamber for its next monthly luncheon, taking place Apr. 14 with keynote speaker Danny Malloy of the Addiction Prevention Coalition. The luncheon begins at 11:30 a.m. at Vestavia Country Club.